Midterms 2026

ELECTION3d to Nov 3

What the crowd is pricing — House control, Senate control, and the balance of power.

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party95%

Republican Party6%

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Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party71%

Republican Party30%

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Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep71%

R Senate, D House25%

Republicans Sweep6%

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Races to Watch

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 17%

Gavin Newsom 16%

$1299.6M vol

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 18%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 12%

$722.8M vol

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 38%

Marco Rubio 20%

$719.4M vol

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen 41%

David Lisnard 19%

$161.4M vol

Netanyahu out by...?

June 30, 2027 34%

March 31, 2027 26%

$124.9M vol

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Yes 18%

No 83%

$76.0M vol

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 31 68%

December 31 45%

$44.7M vol

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Yes 6%

No 95%

$28.8M vol

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 2027 30%

December 31 14%

$28.4M vol

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

None 23%

IA, KS 13%

$10.9M vol

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 2027 71%

November 30, 2027 68%

$10.2M vol

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D) 72%

Ken Paxton (R) 28%

$8.8M vol

Michigan Senate Election Winner

Abdul El-Sayed (D) 77%

Mike Rogers (R) 24%

$4.6M vol

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤47 49%

48 14%

$4.3M vol

Maine Senate Election Winner

Troy Jackson (D) 69%

Susan Collins (R) 32%

$3.1M vol

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo 84%

Pedro Sánchez 10%

$2.5M vol

Ohio Senate Election Winner

Sherrod Brown (D) 72%

Jon Husted (R) 28%

$2.3M vol

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 2027 62%

Sánchez - Spanish PM 15%

$2.1M vol

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Yes 7%

No 93%

$2.1M vol

Kansas Senate Election Winner

Adam Hamilton (D) 52%

Roger Marshall (R) 48%

$1.8M vol

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Yes 91%

No 10%

$1.8M vol

South Carolina Senate Election Winner

Darline Graham Nordone (R) 73%

Annie Andrews (D) 27%

$1.6M vol

Texas Governor Election Winner

Greg Abbott (R) 64%

Gina Hinojosa (D) 36%

$1.5M vol

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Yes 4%

No 96%

$1.5M vol

Market prices from Polymarket. Not investment advice. 18+.