VAN @ CAR

Lankinen is getting lit up at a 5.33 GAA clip through 3 starts — that's a sieve, not a starter. Bussi is the better goalie in this matchup and CAR has home ice. The price is painful but the edge is real.

Brandon Bussi has been the steadier netminder to open the season, posting a .851 SV% and 3.33 GAA over 3 starts (small sample). CAR's defensive structure at PNC Arena is suffocating — they've gone to OT twice in their last four, showing they can grind games down. With Seth Jarvis on IR, the offense takes a hit, but if Bussi keeps the goals-against manageable, Carolina's depth and home crowd give them a real structural advantage in a tight game.

Vancouver is 2-2 in their last four with a win in Edmonton in OT — they can travel and compete. CAR has dropped two straight, including an OT loss to Florida at home, so the Hurricanes aren't exactly rolling. VAN's injury losses at center hurt, but CAR is also missing Jarvis. At +270, you're getting nearly 3-to-1 on a team that has shown it can steal games on the road. If Lankinen steadies even slightly, the upset value here is enormous.

VAN is 2-2 in their last four; CAR is 2-2 in their last four. Bussi's 3.33 GAA vs. Lankinen's 5.33 GAA is a 2.00-goal differential — massive in a sport where games routinely end 3-2.

VAN is coming off a road trip through Edmonton. CAR has lost back-to-back games and hosts at PNC Arena. VAN is missing two centers (Chytil, Thomas) plus MacEachern on the wing — real forward depth damage. CAR loses Jarvis at center but their forward group is deeper.

-340 implies roughly 77% win probability for CAR. That's a steep ask on a 3-start sample, but the goalie gap justifies a lean. No value at this price — this is a directional call only, not a moneyline play.