SJ @ STL

The goalie matchup is doing all the heavy lifting here — Hofer has been a wall while Askarov is leaking goals at a 4.00 GAA clip. Back the Blues at home.

Joel Hofer is the story. A 0.955 SV% and 1.00 GAA over his first 2 starts (small sample) means he's been virtually unbeatable — in a low-scoring sport, that kind of goaltending turns every game into a 2-1 grind that STL can win. STL also snapped a two-game skid with a road win at Dallas, showing they can compete. Playing at home in Enterprise Center adds structure and crowd energy. If Hofer is anywhere near this form, San Jose's offense doesn't have enough firepower to crack him.

San Jose is the hotter team right now — two straight wins, both in overtime, showing they know how to grind out results when it matters. STL's blue line is a mess: Brandon Carlo is out, Logan Mailloux and Tyler Tucker are both on IR. That's three defensemen gone, which means more defensive zone chaos and more shots against. If Askarov settles in and the Sharks' forwards exploit those defensive gaps, SJ at +120 is real value. STL's 1-2 L3 record includes back-to-back losses before that Dallas win.

Askarov is posting a 0.862 SV% and 4.00 GAA over 3 starts (small sample). Hofer counters with a 0.955 SV% and 1.00 GAA over 2 starts (small sample). SJ is 2-1 L3; STL is 1-2 L3.

STL is missing three defensemen — Carlo (Out), Mailloux (IR), Tucker (IR) — creating real exposure on the back end. SJ is dealing with center depth issues: Celebrini is day-to-day, Barre-Boulet and Lund are both on IR. No back-to-back situation flagged for either side.

STL at -142 implies roughly 59% win probability. Given Hofer's current form, that price is fair-to-slightly-soft. There's modest value laying the juice here rather than chasing the +120.