PHI @ BOS

Vladar is getting lit up and PHI can't buy a win right now. Back Swayman and the Bruins at home until the market forces you off this number.

Jeremy Swayman is the story here. A 0.932 SV% and 2.00 GAA over 4 starts (small sample) is lights-out goaltending, and that's the single biggest driver in NHL moneylines. Boston is 3-2 over their last five, showing they can win close games — including an OT road win at WPG and a home win over NYR. PHI's offense has to solve a hot goalie on the road, and nothing in their recent run suggests they can do it. The Bruins are the better-rested, better-tended team in this spot.

PHI at +114 is a live dog price if Vladar steals one. Yes, his 0.863 SV% and 5.00 GAA over 2 starts (small sample) are ugly, but two-game samples in net are nearly meaningless — he could be due for a correction. BOS is also missing Charlie McAvoy on the blue line, which is a massive hole in their defensive structure and transition game. A depleted Bruins back end could give PHI's forwards room to generate, and one hot period from Vladar flips this game entirely.

PHI is 0-5 in their last five games. BOS is 3-2 in their last five, including three wins. Swayman's 0.932 SV% over 4 starts (small sample) vs. Vladar's 0.863 SV% over 2 starts (small sample) — a 69-point gap in save percentage.

McAvoy's absence (listed at 17, presumed injured) strips Boston of their top defensive anchor. PHI's Rasmus Ristolainen is day-to-day, potentially thinning their already-struggling blue line further. No back-to-back flags for either team.

-135 for a team with a goalie posting 0.932 SV% against a squad that's 0-5 in their last five is fair value, not a public overreaction. The McAvoy injury likely kept this number from being -150 or steeper.