CBJ @ STL

Hofer is standing on his head early this season, and Greaves is getting lit up on fresh legs — now he's doing it on a back-to-back. Back the Blues at home.

Joel Hofer has been a wall through 3 starts — 0.930 SV% and a 1.67 GAA is elite goaltending by any measure. STL is playing at home, and their opponent is skating on fumes in the second game of a back-to-back. Columbus is also banged up on the blue line with Ivan Provorov on IR and Brendan Smith sidelined, meaning their defensive structure in front of an already-struggling Greaves is compromised. A fatigued team with a leaky goalie and a shorthanded D-corps is a bad combination against a hot netminder.

STL has dropped three of their last four, including two straight regulation losses on the road and an OT loss at home to San Jose. Their own injury report is ugly — Brandon Carlo and Logan Mailloux both out on the back end, Dillon Dube gone up front. That's a depleted roster that hasn't been winning games. CBJ is 2-1 in their last three and showed they can close out wins. If Greaves gets hot for one night and STL's offense stays cold, Columbus steals this at plus money.

Hofer: 0.930 SV%, 1.67 GAA over 3 GS (small sample). Greaves: 0.877 SV%, 3.50 GAA over 2 GS (small sample). CBJ is 2-1 L3; STL is 1-3 L4.

CBJ is on a back-to-back — the single biggest situational red flag in the NHL. Greaves takes the net already running below average, now with depleted legs. STL missing Carlo and Mailloux on D hurts, but they're at home with rest.

STL at -130 implies roughly 56.5% win probability. Given the goalie gap and back-to-back, that price is fair-to-slightly-undervalued. No significant overlay, but the number is on the right side.