DET @ ARI

Detroit is the better team right now, full stop. At -250 the price is steep, but the talent gap is real — Goff against a Cardinals defense that's lost three of four is a favorable matchup.

Jared Goff is healthy and running an offense that's putting up 31.8 PPG through four weeks — that's a top-tier output. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta give him reliable targets at every level, and Jahmyr Gibbs keeps defenses honest in the run game. Arizona is 1-3 and has dropped three straight before their LAC win. Their secondary is already thin, and without Marvin Harrison Jr., their offense can't threaten enough to force Detroit into a shootout they'd lose. The Lions win by controlling the line of scrimmage and making Brissett uncomfortable.

Jacoby Brissett has Trey McBride as a legitimate weapon, and Michael Wilson gives him a credible outside option. Arizona's offense is averaging 29.3 PPG — this isn't a dead unit. Detroit's offensive line took hits with Ben Bartch and Giovanni Manu both out, which could disrupt their run-game rhythm and give Goff a messier pocket than usual. Brian Branch out in the secondary is also a real loss for Detroit's defense. In a dome with no weather factor, ARI gets every advantage of a controlled environment at home. At +205, you're getting paid well to fade a Lions team with O-line concerns.

DET is 2-2, ARI is 1-3. Lions offense at 31.8 PPG, Cardinals at 29.3 PPG — a 2.5-point scoring gap that mirrors the talent differential. ARI has lost three of their last four games.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is out for Arizona — that's their most dangerous receiver gone. Detroit is missing two O-linemen and their starting safety, which creates vulnerability on both sides of the ball. Indoor dome in Glendale eliminates any weather variable entirely.

DET at -250 implies roughly 71% win probability. That's a steep price for a 2-2 road team, but the line reflects the genuine talent gap. Sharp money is clearly on Detroit — the public isn't getting a discount here.