BUF @ LAR

The market is pricing LAR as a home favorite against a team that scores 6 more points per game. Take the points with Buffalo and let Allen cook.

Matthew Stafford is active and operating behind a line that just lost Justin Dedich to IR — interior protection is compromised. Kyren Williams and the run game will need to carry weight to compensate. Meanwhile, LAR's 20.8 PPG offense hasn't shown the firepower to justify laying 3.5 against anyone. Their 2-2 record includes a loss at Denver and a home loss to San Francisco, meaning they've been beaten at both altitude and at SoFi. A team averaging under 21 points per game asking you to lay a field goal is a tough sell.

Josh Allen is active, but Buffalo's defense took hits — Ed Oliver out at DT weakens the interior pass rush, and Dorian Strong's absence at CB leaves a coverage hole. LAR gets Puka Nacua and Colby Parkinson against a secondary missing a starter. Home field at SoFi, plus the Rams' 1-1 home mark showing they can protect the building, gives Stafford enough of a cushion to win by a field goal or more. Buffalo's one loss this season proves they're not invincible.

BUF is 3-1 with 26.8 PPG. LAR is 2-2 with 20.8 PPG — a 6-point scoring differential that favors the road team. LAR is 1-1 at home this season.

SoFi is outdoor but in Inglewood — no weather suppression factor. LAR's offensive line is shorthanded with Dedich on IR. BUF's defensive front loses Ed Oliver, softening their pass-rush edge. No back-to-back or short-week concerns for either side.

LAR juice at -102 versus BUF at -118 signals public backing on the home team. Sharp money typically moves toward the cheaper side — that's Buffalo here, getting 3.5 at a discount.