SEA @ DEN

Denver is coming off a road win at LAC while Seattle just dropped a tight one at home to SF — the Broncos have the momentum and the crowd at Mile High. Bo Nix's squad has won two straight; Darnold's crew has lost two of three.

Take the home team getting the points. Denver's offense outscores Seattle's, their defense gets a massive boost from playing at altitude, and Seattle's linebacker depth is in shambles heading into this road spot.

Denver's defense is already stout, and Seattle is rolling into Mile High with two starting linebackers — Chazz Surratt and Drake Thomas — both ruled out. That's a gutted front seven trying to contain J.K. Dobbins and Bo Nix's legs in a thin-air environment. DEN averages 22.2 PPG over 5 games and just held LAC to 17 on the road. The Broncos are 2-0 at home this season, and altitude is a real factor for a Seattle offense averaging only 21 PPG that now has to travel and execute without a full defensive complement to keep the game close.

Seattle is the road favorite for a reason — Sam Darnold is active and this offense has shown it can put up 30-plus points (did it twice in the last five games). Pat Surtain II being out for Denver is a massive blow to their secondary; Jaxon Smith-Njigba now has a favorable matchup against a cornerback room missing its best player. Seattle's offense doesn't need to be elite — it just needs to outscore a Denver team that got blown out 31-10 at KC and dropped 14-24 at SF. The Seahawks have the offensive firepower to win this outright.

DEN averages 22.2 PPG over 5 games; SEA averages 21 PPG over 5 games. DEN is 2-0 at home; SEA is 3-2 overall. Denver's last five results: W, L, W, W, L. Seattle's last five: L, W, L, W, W.

Pat Surtain II (CB) is out for Denver, opening the door for Seattle's passing game. But Seattle counters with two LBs out — Surratt and Drake Thomas — crippling their run defense against Dobbins. Emanuel Wilson is active for SEA but Jacardia Wright is out, thinning their backfield depth on a short week after a Sunday loss.

DEN +2.5 at -108 is the sharper-priced side. The public likely fades home underdogs reflexively, but 2.5 points at a discount is where the value lives in a divisional-adjacent AFC West matchup.