DAL @ GB

Green Bay just demolished Chicago 31-7 and is riding a two-game win streak with momentum at Lambeau. Dallas, meanwhile, just dropped a flat 16-24 home loss to Tampa Bay — not exactly a team oozing confidence heading into a road divisional-style atmosphere.

DAL's offensive firepower and the lopsided juice make +1.5 at -118 a workable number. Take the points with the Cowboys.

Green Bay is playing at Lambeau Field, where the October atmosphere is a genuine factor, and Jordan Love is active and coming off a dominant 31-7 shellacking of Chicago. The Packers defense gets a boost from their front — even with Jordon Riley out — against a Dallas offensive line that is already missing Drew Shelton at OT. Dak Prescott behind a compromised line on the road against a defense with momentum is a real concern. Green Bay's 3-2 record includes two wins decided by a combined 3 points, showing they know how to close.

Dallas is the superior offensive team at 27.2 PPG versus Green Bay's 22.4 PPG, and that 4.8-point gap is enormous when the spread is only 1.5. Dak Prescott is active and has CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson as weapons. Green Bay's offense loses Josh Jacobs — their featured back — which forces Jordan Love into a heavier passing load. MarShawn Lloyd stepping into that role is an unproven ask. Dallas also covered a 34-30 road win at Houston recently, proving they can produce points away from home when it matters.

DAL averages 27.2 PPG (5 games). GB averages 22.4 PPG (5 games). DAL is 2-3 overall; GB is 3-2. GB's last five includes a 31-7 blowout win and a 17-14 road grind — their wins are coming in different ways.

Josh Jacobs (RB) is out for Green Bay, removing their primary ball-carrier. Dallas is missing Drew Shelton (OT) and two defensive starters in Cobie Durant (CB) and DeMarvion Overshown (LB). Lambeau Field is outdoor in mid-October Green Bay — expect cold conditions that could suppress both passing games.

GB -102 juice versus DAL -118 tells you the public is on Green Bay. Fading public money on a 1.5-point number with the higher-scoring team getting points is where the value sits.