TOR @ CBJ

Toronto just gutted out a 3-1 win over San Jose last night — that's the second game in two nights on the road. Columbus, meanwhile, is sitting fresh off a day of rest after a tight 1-2 loss in Minnesota two days ago. The fatigue narrative is real here.

Stolarz at 0.875 SV% on zero rest is a liability Toronto can't afford with a thinned-out forward corps. Back Greaves and the well-rested Blue Jackets at home.

Jet Greaves is sitting right at league average with a 0.904 SV% and a 2.75 GAA — he's not a liability, he's a stabilizer. Columbus is 3-2 at home and playing with a full day of rest after their OT win over NYR. The Jackets have shown they can win ugly — a 1-0 OT result and a 3-2 win in their last two home games. Against a Toronto team playing its second game in two nights with Tavares on IR and Wood out, Columbus's structure and fresh legs are a real edge.

Toronto just went out and beat San Jose 3-1 last night — they have momentum and their skaters showed they can generate offense. The Leafs are 3-4 overall but have gone to OT twice and lost a pair of one-goal games, meaning the underlying competitiveness is there. Columbus has been leaky at times — a 3-7 blowout loss to Florida and a 3-5 loss at St. Louis in their recent stretch. If TOR's skaters push the pace early and Stolarz steadies, +130 is a price worth attacking against a Columbus team that's inconsistent at even strength.

TOR is 2-3 in their last five; CBJ is also 2-3 in their last five. Columbus is 3-2 at home this season. Toronto has dropped three of their last four road games, going 1-2 away from home overall.

TOR is on a back-to-back — played Oct 19, now Oct 20. Tavares (IR) and Wood (IR) are out, gutting their center depth. CBJ loses Provorov on the blue line but is otherwise healthy and rested. The fatigue factor on Stolarz is the single biggest situational tell here.

CBJ at -155 implies roughly 61% win probability. Given the back-to-back and goalie gap, that price is fair-to-slightly-steep but not a fade spot. TOR at +130 is a live dog price, not a value price.