TOR @ LAL

Toronto is quietly rolling without their star — three wins in four games, including a 37-point demolition of Orlando. LAL's defense got torched for 136 just days ago, and the market hasn't fully penalized them for it.

Toronto is 3-1 without Kawhi and getting plus money at +2.5 — that's value. Take the Raptors to cover.

LAL is 4-1 overall and 2-1 at home, and their offense has been consistently productive — 103, 132, 125, and 127 points in their four wins. They held LAC to 87 points in their most recent outing, showing they can clamp down when locked in. Toronto is missing Kawhi Leonard (Out), which is a massive hole regardless of how well the supporting cast has performed. Losing a perimeter anchor of that caliber typically swings a line 5-8 points, and LAL at home with a 4-1 record is a legitimate favorite.

Toronto is 3-1 without Kawhi Leonard — that's not a fluke, that's a functional roster. Their last three wins came by margins of 30, 10, and 43 points, showing they can both grind and blow teams out. Meanwhile LAL just surrendered 136 points at home to Portland in a loss — their defense is not airtight. Nate Bittle is out for TOR, but he's a fringe rotation piece compared to Kawhi's absence. At -115, you're paying a premium for a team with a proven defensive soft spot.

TOR is 3-1 (L4), averaging wins by 30, 10, and 43 points in their three victories. LAL is 4-1 (L5) but allowed 136 points at home in their lone loss. TOR is 1-1 away; LAL is 2-1 at home.

Both teams enter on 4 days rest — no fatigue edge either direction. Kawhi Leonard is out for Toronto, a star-level absence. LAL's Ziaire Williams is Questionable, a secondary piece. Adou Thiero is out for LAL but is not a rotation cornerstone. Nate Bittle is out for TOR.

LAL at -115 carries a slight public lean. TOR at -105 is the sharper price. A 2.5-point spread with that juice split suggests the market sees this as close to a coin flip — the plus side offers real value.